2026
87
Today — current forecast
Verdict: favorable. The same /v1/score number a booking flow consumes.
01
The time horizon
One sub-spot · four decades
A kitesurfing sub-spot in Tarifa today scores 87. Same engine, same curves, projected forward via the bias-corrected CMIP6 ensemble under SSP2-4.5 (the middle-of-the-road emissions scenario). The trajectory is what an asset manager can build a portfolio strategy around.
2035
82
Near-term · SSP2-4.5
Slight wind-regime shift. Sub-spot still viable for the activity, season may compress by 2 weeks.
2050
71
Mid-term · SSP2-4.5
Season compression ~30%. Workable verdict but operator must rebalance equipment mix.
2075
58
Long-term · SSP2-4.5
Adaptation decisions required: site relocation, season migration, or activity portfolio change.
The score drop isn't catastrophic — what changes is the confidence interval. As we project further, the ensemble spread widens. The engine surfaces that spread directly in the response, so a REIT analyst can stress-test a portfolio against tail scenarios, not just the central estimate.
02
Worked example
Same sub-spot · four scenarios
The choice of emissions pathway changes which world you're underwriting. The engine returns the full grid — score and confidence per (year × scenario × spot). Below: same Tarifa kitesurf sub-spot, projected to 2075 across the four canonical IPCC pathways.
SSP1-2.6
82 → 78
2026 → 2075
Aggressive mitigation
1.6°C by 2100
SSP2-4.5
82 → 71
2026 → 2075
Middle of the road
2.7°C by 2100
SSP3-7.0
82 → 58
2026 → 2075
Rivalry, slow tech
3.6°C by 2100
SSP5-8.5
82 → 48
2026 → 2075
Fossil-fueled development
4.4°C by 2100
Reading the scenarios · Under aggressive mitigation (SSP1-2.6) the sub-spot remains favorable through 2075 — a low-risk asset. Under middle-of-the- road policy (SSP2-4.5, the most commonly underwritten path) the score drifts into workable territory and adaptation becomes rational. Under SSP5-8.5 the spot crosses into poor by 2075 — the activity migrates north or the operator pivots to a carbon-neutral alternative the catalogue already covers.
03
How it works
From CMIP6 to a single score
No new physics, no new machine learning. The projection pipeline is composition over what already runs in production: same providers (climate, not just weather), same physics formulas, same calibrated curves, same confidence model.
1
CMIP6 ensemble
30+ general-circulation models, 4 emission scenarios, multi-decadal time series. We fetch the raw NetCDF from ESGF + bias-correct against the local ERA5 record per sub-spot.
2
CORDEX downscaling
EUR-11 (12km) for Europe, NAM-22 for North America. Higher-resolution regional climate models that resolve sub-spot orography missed at the global 100km scale.
3
Bias correction
Per-(sub-spot × variable) multiplicative + additive offsets fitted nightly. Bayesian shrinkage when the sub-spot record is short — borrows strength from the parent region.
4
Profile re-score
Same physics curves the /v1/score endpoint uses. The activity's calibrated suitability function evaluated on the projected (wind, wave, temp, snow) distribution at each decade.
5
Adaptation report
POST /v1/projections/adaptation-report → multi-year × multi-scenario summary, with confidence intervals derived from ensemble spread + bias-correction uncertainty.
04
Buyers
Three personas, one report
DMOs · regional development
Tourism boards
Adaptation roadmap for an entire activity portfolio.
Cantone alpino guarda 5 stagioni sci avanti su 4 scenari emissivi. Decide quali quote vanno ripensate, quali licenze impianti vanno consolidate, quali nuove discipline (gravel, escursionismo invernale) vanno spinte. Same engine as the booking-platform tenants pay for — different time-window.
Holiday rentals, resorts, marinas
REITs · property
Asset-level viability across the mortgage horizon.
Asset manager con 200 unit nei Caraibi vuole capire quale sub-set rimane viable per kitesurf-rentals nel 2050 vs Mar Egeo. Score per spot per decade per scenario → re-balance del portafoglio prima che il mercato si renda conto.
EU Horizon · LIFE · national funds
Adaptation grant filers
Defensible projections as supporting evidence.
Consorzio alpino candida un progetto LIFE Climate-Adaptation. Allega ai documenti l'adaptation report Goable: ensemble CMIP6 bias-corrected + sub-spot resolution + open-citable methodology. La commissione accetta perché la metodologia è pubblica + il codice open-source — non un PowerPoint.
05
Access
Scale plan · contracted
Plan posture
Adaptation projections aren't on the self-serve tiers — the CMIP6 ensemble pull alone costs us non-trivially per call, and the report-grade output needs a discovery call to scope the spot list + scenario set. Onboard via the partner desk; contracts run annual with a fixed report cadence (quarterly refresh by default).
Methodology governance
The bias-correction model + the per-scenario uncertainty propagation are documented in the open Research Frontier page. EU adaptation grants and tourism-board RFPs commonly ask for a methodology statement — we provide one that maps to the published methodology, not a black-box "trust us".
06
Get in touch
Three weeks from first call to first report
A typical onboarding: kick-off call (your spot list + scenario set + reporting cadence), pilot delivery (one region, two scenarios, sample report) at week 2, contract execution + full rollout by week 4. We don't sell adaptation studies — we sell an ongoing engine subscription that produces them.