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Data and confidence

Every number, labelled by how we know it.

Goable blends forecasts, in-situ observations, satellite data and reanalysis into one verdict. Every value in a score carries its provenance, its freshness, and a confidence it feeds. This page shows how to read that, so a verdict is auditable rather than a number to take on faith.

01
source_type

Measured, or modelled

Every reading that feeds a score carries a source_type. It tells you, at the point of decision, whether a value was measured or modelled. A model is never dressed up as an observation.

Measureda real instrument or satellite
in_situ_observation
A real sensor in the environment

A physical instrument measuring where it stands: a moored buoy reporting wave height and sea temperature, a coastal tide gauge, an airport weather station (METAR), a lightning-detection network. The closest thing to ground truth when one is near your spot and reporting recently.

satellite_observation
Measured from space

Earth-observation products such as the Copernicus Marine sea-surface temperature and wave fields. Real measurements, but gridded and typically daily rather than a single instrument at your exact point.

Modelleda prediction or reconstruction
forecast_model
A numerical prediction

A physics model projecting conditions forward: the wind, wave and weather forecast that anchors most scores, and the GloFAS river-discharge forecast. A prediction, not a reading, so we label it as one.

reanalysis
A reconstruction of the recent past

A consistent model rebuild of what already happened, such as ERA5-Land snow (global). A background layer for where a live observation does not reach. A model, never presented as an observation.

02
assimilation

How a reading becomes part of a verdict

An observation does not just get averaged in. It runs a gauntlet, and each stage is visible in the response.

1

Observe

Take the nearest reading from every wired source near the spot: buoys, gauges, stations, satellite, model.

2

Check freshness

Timestamp each reading and drop anything past its source-specific staleness window. Old data does not speak for now.

3

Weigh representativeness

Score how well the source stands in for the spot: exposure, depth, regime, not just distance in kilometres.

4

Correct or validate

A representative divergence can override the forecast; otherwise it only annotates it. Never silently.

5

Report confidence

Fold source quality, freshness and coverage into a confidence value, and say what limited it.

03
in the response

You can see it, per number

A slice of a real score response. The wave height came from a buoy standing in the water and was fresh enough to correct the forecast; the sea temperature is satellite; the river figure is a model forecast, labelled as one. Nothing hides.

  • overridden: truethe buoy was representative, so it corrected the forecast
  • stale_minuteshow old the reading was, so you can apply your own tolerance
  • modeled_ vs observed_the field name itself tells you measured from modelled
POST /v1/score · response● 200 OK
{
"score": 82,
"verdict": "favorable",
"confidence": {
"mode": "forecast",
"value": 0.82
},
"eco": {
"buoy_validation": {
"source_type": "in_situ_observation",
"observed_wave_m": 1.4,
"stale_minutes": 40,
"overridden": true
},
"sst_validation": {
"source_type": "satellite_observation",
"observed_c": 21.6
},
"river_validation": {
"source_type": "forecast_model",
"modeled_discharge_m3s": 71
}
}
}
04
corrections

When an observation corrects, and when it only validates

An observation near your spot does one of two things, and the response always says which.

Validate only

The observed value is annotated alongside the forecast and the gap is reported, but the score does not change. Tide-gauge level, river discharge and snow sit here: ground-truth context without overriding the physics.

Correct, when representative

When a nearby, fresh observation diverges materially from the forecast it can override that value (a moored buoy correcting wave height), threshold-gated per variable. Only when it genuinely represents the spot: same exposure, depth and regime, not merely close.

05
coverage

Coverage varies, and we say where

Not every variable has an observation near every spot. Where a source is not close by, its block is left out of the response rather than filled with a guess. Two consequences worth stating plainly:

/v1/score

Works at any coordinate worldwide on forecast physics. Observation corrections appear where representative data exists nearby.

/v1/recommend-spot

Ranks catalogued sub-spots, so it is available in covered regions. Coverage differs by variable and region, and it is expanding.

06
the honest line

A verdict supports a decision. It does not replace your judgment.

Goable turns conditions into an explainable verdict and can hard-limit a score through safety gates: lightning, wind hazard, air quality. It does not replace an operator's judgment or a sport's safety protocols. The final call to run a session stays with the human running it.