Parametric weather underwriting

Quote, bind, settle parametric weather policies driven by the same scoring engine. Designed for outdoor-tourism MGAs, school operators with revenue-protection needs, and bespoke event coverage.

The contract

A Goable policy is a parametric contract over a portfolio of (spot, activity, time window) pairs. The payout function is the integrated suitability shortfall across the covered window: if the realised scores fall below your strike, the policy pays per-point per-day according to the bound payout schedule. No claims process, no adjuster — settlement runs against the same engine that quoted the premium, on a cohort-hashed audit trail.

POST /v1/underwriting/quote

Returns a premium quote for a portfolio. The engine runs the ensemble scorer over the covered window, computes the expected shortfall distribution, applies tier multipliers, and prices to a target loss ratio. Multi-currency portfolios return byCurrency premium broken down per currency (no FX conversion — the bound policy will settle per-currency).

{
 "portfolio": [
 { "spotSlug": "tarifa-balneario",
 "activity": "kitesurfing",
 "window": { from: "...", to: "..." },
 "strike": 55, // pay below this verdict score
 "payoutPerPointPerDay": { "amount": 150, "currency": "EUR" },
 "limit": { "amount": 5000, "currency": "EUR" }
 },
 … additional spots
 ]
}

Response carries the premium total, a byCurrency map, the expected loss, and a cohortHash — the SHA-256 of the weather sample set used to compute the quote. The hash anchors the contract: any settlement must replay against the same cohort.

POST /v1/underwriting/bind

Convert a quote into a bound policy. Submit the quoteId from a recent quote (≤24h old) + your premium confirmation. Returns a policy id, the immutable cohort hash, and the settlement schedule.

POST /v1/underwriting/evaluate

Returns the current accrued shortfall + projected payout for a bound policy. Read-only — does not settle. Use it for mid-period dashboard updates ("the policy is currently at €1,200 accrued"); call it as often as you like.

Tier multipliers

Sub-spot resolution matters for premium pricing. A tier-1 spot (≥150 paired outcomes, calibrated) prices at the base multiplier; tier-2 (cluster-level) and tier-3 (regional fallback) carry uncertainty loadings. The tierMultiplierWeightedAvg in the quote response shows the portfolio-wide multiplier. Configure rates in apps/api/config/tier_risk_multipliers.yaml.

Settlement

Settlement runs automatically on a cron at policy expiry. The engine replays the bound cohort hash, computes the realised shortfall, and returns the final payout per currency. Bound policies are immutable — once cohort-hashed, the underlying weather data set is cryptographically committed. If a manual replay is needed (e.g. a disputed payout), Goable ops can trigger it; clients don't run settlement themselves.